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Category:Year of birth missing (living people)“My opponent says it’s a dirty trick. Well, he could be a lot dirtier, but at least he’s on time.” –Joe Biden
With just a few days to go before the Iowa caucuses, there are a plethora of options and questions about who will actually end up on the Democratic ticket. Biden? Bernie? O’Malley? Buttigieg? All will be on the ballot here, with Sanders also in contention for the title of “most popular candidate” if he manages to capture at least 50% of the Iowa vote.
The official Iowa Caucus results will be released on February 4th, meaning that voters have about two weeks to really take stock of the race. This is our final GOTV and early vote piece, and it will analyze which candidates are currently leading in key battleground counties, and more importantly, what the implications will be for tomorrow night’s results.
Unsurprisingly, Sanders and Biden are leading in Iowa’s most populous counties, which is where the bulk of Iowans will end up voting. Sanders leads in Johnson County by a margin of roughly 26,000 votes, and Biden leads in Dallas County by roughly 12,000 votes.
Those are substantial leads, but they are also far from the margins seen in past primaries. Looking at the rest of the counties that make up Iowa’s map, we can see that there is a large area of geographic overlap between the candidates.
When we look at the most recent poll numbers from polls that surveyed the general population of Iowa, we see a similar pattern. Sanders and Biden split the difference, with Sanders leading in Carroll County and Biden leading in Keokuk County.
Just looking at the key counties that make up Iowa’s map may give a false sense of just how close this is going to be. While each county has a population of around 150,000 people, the vast majority of those voters are concentrated in a handful of counties.
Map courtesy of Dave Bird of @davebirdmap
As you can see on the map, the majority of the population in the state can be found in just nine counties. These are:
Jefferson
Humboldt
Dallas
Lee
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